Mumbai residential market starts 2024 with record-breaking momentum; posts highest January registrations in 12 years: Knight Frank India

by Shrutee K    

·         Over 10,900 units registered in Jan 2024, up 21% YoY.

·         Stamp duty collections from property registrations remained buoyant, increased by 8% YoY to INR 746 cr

·         58% of registered properties in Jan 2024 were worth INR 1 cr and above 

Mumbai, January 31, 2024: Mumbai city (area under BMC jurisdiction) in January 2024 is projected to witness registration of 10,901 properties, contributing to a revenue of INR 746 Crores (Cr) for the state government. This highlights a notable 21% Year-on-Year (YoY) increase in registration numbers and a 8% YoY growth in revenue compared to the previous year. Homebuyer confidence in the Mumbai market persists and the outlook remains positive. This positive outlook has led to a substantial upswing in property registrations in Mumbai. Of the overall registered properties, residential units constitute 80%, the remaining 20% constitute non-residential assets. 

Table: Mumbai property sale registration and government revenue collection

Period	Registration  (Units)	YoY	MoM	Revenue (INR cr)	YoY	MoM
Jan-23	9,001	10%	-4%	692	45%	-17%
Feb-23	9,684	-7%	8%	1,112	81%	61%
Mar-23	13,151	-21%	36%	1,226	6%	10%
Apr-23	10,514	-10%	-20%	900	22%	-27%
May-23	9,823	0%	-7%	833	15%	-7%
Jun-23	10,319	4%	5%	859	17%	3%
Jul-23	10,221	-10%	-1%	831	0.3%	-3%
Aug-23	10,902	27%	7%	810	26%	-2%
Sep-23	10,694	24%	-2%	1,127	54%	39%
Oct-23	10,607	26%	-1%	835	15%	-26%
Nov-23	9,736	9%	-8%	712	4%	-15%
Dec-23	12,255	31%	26%	932	12%	31%
Jan-24*	10,901	21%	-11%	746	8%	-20%

Source: Maharashtra Govt- Dept. of Registrations and Stamps (IGR); Knight Frank India, *Numbers projected based on per day run rate

Table: Best January in last 12-years (2013-2024)

Month wise Registration	Sales registration	YoY change	Revenue (INR cr)	YoY change
Jan-13	5,599	NA	268	NA
Jan-14	5,497	-2%	271	1%
Jan-15	6,214	13%	348	29%
Jan-16	5,163	-17%	279	-20%
Jan-17	3,619	-30%	255	-9%
Jan-18	6,270	73%	388	52%
Jan-19	4,605	-27%	371	-4%
Jan-20	6,150	34%	454	22%
Jan-21	10,412	69%	305	-33%
Jan-22	8,155	-22%	478	57%
Jan-23	9,001	10%	692	45%
Jan-24	10,901	21%	746	8%

Source: Maharashtra Govt- Dept. of Registrations and Stamps (IGR); Knight Frank India 

January 2024 sets record for best January month in 12 years:

In January 2024, Mumbai witnessed its highest number of property registrations occurring in any January month in a 12-year span. The previous peak was fuelled by a surge in optimism and a spillover of pent-up demand as the effects of the pandemic gradually diminished. However, the recent increase can be attributed to rising income levels and a favourable perception towards homeownership. Concurrently, the city also recorded best January tally in terms of revenue collections in 12-years, primarily propelled by higher stamp duty rates, burgeoning property prices, and an increased share of premium properties. 

500-1000 sq ft area properties continue to dominate property registrations.

In January 2024, there was an increase in the share of apartments measuring 500 sq. ft. and below, rising to 48%, as opposed to the 35% recorded in the previous year. Conversely, the share of apartments ranging from 500 sq. ft. to 1000 sq. ft. witnessed a decline, decreasing to 43% from the 48% reported during the same period last year. Nevertheless, this appears to be an isolated occurrence, as the predominant inclination of people has generally been towards larger apartments. 

Table: Area wise breakup of apartment sales

Area (sq ft)	Share in Jan 2023	Share Jan 2024
Up to 500	35%	48%
500 – 1,000	48%	43%
1,000 – 2,000	14%	8%
over 2,000	3%	1%

Source: Maharashtra Govt- Dept. of Registrations and Stamps (IGR); Knight Frank India Research

 

Central and Western suburbs continue to remain the most preferred location

Table: Preferred location of Property purchase – January 2024

		Buyers’ location
Preferred Micro market		Central Mumbai	Central Suburbs	South Mumbai	Western Suburbs	Out of city
	Central Mumbai	42%	3%	8%	1%	2%
	Central Suburbs	34%	85%	13%	12%	41%
	South Mumbai	5%	3%	50%	1%	8%
	Western Suburbs	19%	9%	29%	86%	49%
		100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Of the total properties registered, Central and Western suburbs together constituted over 75% as these locations are a hotbed for new launches offering a wide range of modern amenities and good connectivity. 86% of Western suburb consumers and 85% of Central suburb consumers opt to purchase within their micro market. This choice is influenced by the familiarity of the location, along with the availability of products that align with their pricing and feature preferences. 

Shishir Baijal, Chairman & Managing Director, Knight Frank India, said, ““Mumbai residential markets witnessed exceptional performance as it kicks off 2024 with remarkable enthusiasm. The sustained strength in the premium segment, marked by a significant surge to 58% in January sales share, underscores the market's resilience and attractiveness. The positive trajectory is poised to continue, especially with the anticipated strong economic momentum and potential easing of interest rates throughout the year, fostering a conducive environment for homebuyers. The support of both the central and state governments is crucial in sustaining this positive momentum. As we look forward to the upcoming budget announcements, we hope for measures and policies that will further support and propel the real estate sector.” 

Higher value properties have seen a consistent increase in share

Table: Ticket size wise split of property sale registrations

Registrations	INR 1 cr and below	INR 1 cr and above
Jan-20	50%	50%
Jan-21	49%	51%
Jan-22	48%	52%
Jan-23	45%	55%
Jan-24	42%	58%

 

Registrations	INR 1 cr and below (Units)	INR 1 cr and above (Units)
Jan-20	3,070	3,080
Jan-21	5,087	5,325
Jan-22	3,941	4,214
Jan-23	4,014	4,987
Jan-24	4,578	6,323

Over the past few years, there has been a steady increase in the percentage of property registrations valued at INR 1 crore or higher. This percentage has climbed from 55% in Jan-2020 to around 58% in Jan-2024.

The surge in property prices, coupled with a 250-basis point increase in the policy repo rate over the last two years, has negatively affected the segment priced below the INR 1 crore threshold. However, properties valued at 1 crore and above have demonstrated a relatively smaller impact from these headwinds.